Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 2.090533 2.199237 2.315667 2.450607 2.603962 2.774425 2.980580
2025-06-29 1.961469 2.100014 2.254507 2.442087 2.667414 2.934703 3.284764
2025-07-06 1.848888 2.001401 2.175906 2.394444 2.667296 3.006856 3.480538
2025-07-13 1.801857 1.971449 2.170481 2.427702 2.762233 3.201320 3.861568
2025-07-20 1.777859 1.964929 2.189876 2.489776 2.896558 3.462277 4.391404
2025-07-27 1.731124 1.926623 2.165722 2.491670 2.947781 3.611343 4.785234
2025-08-03 1.691292 1.893863 2.145376 2.495260 2.999354 3.765696 5.231361
2025-08-10 1.628820 1.829355 2.080185 2.432650 2.948036 3.749813 5.351086
2025-08-17 1.591372 1.794786 2.051882 2.418378 2.965927 3.847536 5.732241
2025-08-24 1.558012 1.763849 2.026497 2.405924 2.984425 3.947640 6.158075
2025-08-31 1.527987 1.735896 2.003528 2.394992 3.003496 4.050588 6.639495
2025-09-07 1.510983 1.724061 2.001387 2.413503 3.070417 4.252108 7.512233
2025-09-14 1.463286 1.671252 1.942591 2.347251 2.995994 4.175189 7.518904
2025-09-21 1.438702 1.648224 1.923747 2.339373 3.018238 4.295485 8.283883
2025-09-28 1.403666 1.610210 1.882735 2.295890 2.976284 4.276463 8.529972
2025-10-05 1.395090 1.607203 1.890162 2.326185 3.064145 4.551769 10.367979
2025-10-12 1.395151 1.615647 1.913778 2.382646 3.204654 4.987249 14.471150
2025-10-19 1.378487 1.600693 1.903277 2.384360 3.244232 5.189398 18.265998
2025-10-26 1.363194 1.587121 1.894166 2.387618 3.286869 5.412965 25.191408
2025-11-02 1.331189 1.549734 1.849336 2.330667 3.207303 5.277041 24.299055
2025-11-09 1.313164 1.531319 1.831711 2.317663 3.213989 5.394235 32.455021
2025-11-16 1.296431 1.514290 1.815576 2.306309 3.222965 5.521928 50.790051
2025-11-23 1.280821 1.498456 1.800709 2.296337 3.233867 5.660151 140.691802